Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.961514 1.121868 1.300346 1.513694 1.761796 2.041247 2.379979
2024-12-29 0.741830 0.966552 1.244950 1.615089 2.094406 2.694434 3.503351
2025-01-05 0.573289 0.807582 1.120637 1.569321 2.196125 3.041348 4.269383
2025-01-12 0.459403 0.689637 1.016803 1.515271 2.255905 3.316781 4.954729
2025-01-19 0.378838 0.600893 0.933702 1.468315 2.306140 3.570474 5.627757
2025-01-26 0.334190 0.556780 0.906623 1.495748 2.463909 3.994359 6.603797
2025-02-02 0.312479 0.544424 0.925069 1.594168 2.742254 4.635275 8.002815
2025-02-09 0.285132 0.517842 0.915364 1.642508 2.941128 5.167643 9.287255
2025-02-16 0.257796 0.486778 0.892900 1.664000 3.093681 5.636119 10.516484
2025-02-23 0.231444 0.453370 0.861166 1.663160 3.203551 6.038786 11.673015
2025-03-02 0.207021 0.419939 0.824573 1.647389 3.281652 6.389543 12.772005
2025-03-09 0.188798 0.395926 0.802375 1.655601 3.405199 6.837409 14.109752
2025-03-16 0.164990 0.357901 0.748981 1.596921 3.392938 7.029085 14.981971
2025-03-23 0.160152 0.358932 0.774769 1.704950 3.737673 7.980013 17.546859
2025-03-30 0.141804 0.328105 0.729972 1.656688 3.744509 8.232876 18.660879
2025-04-06 0.125161 0.298657 0.684153 1.599649 3.723778 8.422652 19.658407
2025-04-13 0.111197 0.273360 0.644145 1.550094 3.712694 8.630623 20.721534
2025-04-20 0.104215 0.263633 0.638296 1.579046 3.886808 9.275674 22.882146
2025-04-27 0.102519 0.266576 0.662463 1.682910 4.252634 10.407723 26.351551
2025-05-04 0.097661 0.260875 0.665045 1.733925 4.495493 11.276609 29.287015
2025-05-11 0.091645 0.251332 0.656875 1.756605 4.669850 11.999048 31.946035
2025-05-18 0.085007 0.239189 0.640512 1.755718 4.782883 12.580818 34.314182
2025-05-25 0.078265 0.225825 0.619276 1.739075 4.852097 13.058711 36.469197